Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Housing Headwinds

TickerSense had a group performance matrix today showing relative sector performance over the past 20 days, and two sectors really caught my attention - housing and energy equipment & services. Both are buried in the middle, and by just looking at the average you would think they are fairly stable. However both of these sectors have had an unusually large number of days where they were either best or worst performing sector. The volatility in energy equipment is understandable as energy prices are far more volatile than mortgage rates.

So what's the deal with homebuilder stocks? They had 3 days with the best performance and 3 with the worst. Not really sure quite what to make of investors who propelled housing stocks to the top for those three days...I thought it was a relatively straightforward story - interest rates are high and driving up mortgages, prices are bloated, inventories are building up, homebuilder sentiment is near record lows...the list goes on. With homebuilder sentiment and overall prospects for growth what they are I think homebuilders have far more downside exposure at this point, but it appears as if the market is having a difficult time forming a consensus regarding homebuilder stocks. It will be interesting to see if they post fewer days in the green as we get even more info about the housing cooldown.

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NYSE/Euronext Merger

Enter the current share prices for NYSE and Euronext, as well as the USD/Euro Exchange rate and hit "calc" to view relevant data. Deal was announced 6/1/2006.

NYSE Share Price:
Euronext Share Price (Eur):
USD/Eur Exchange Rate:
Market Cap of NYSE+Euronext as of 5/31/06:(blns $US):
Current Market Cap of New NYSE/Euronext (blns $US):
Current Euronext Share Price in USD:
Euronext Change from 5/31/06 Close: % NYSE Change from 5/31/06 Close: %
Valuation of Current Euronext Shares
(a) Using current NYSE Price as new NYSE/Euronext Price:
(b) Using current Market Capitalization for NYSE/Euronext:
(c) Using $20 billion as Market Cap for NYSE/Euronext: